I dtuarascáil nua, deir anailísithe taighde domhanda BofA go bhfuil siad ag súil go dtiocfaidh an margadh copair ar ais isteach sa dearg ó 2025 nuair a chríochnófar an tonn reatha de thógáil tionscadail.
In ainneoin easnamh réamh-mheasta i 2022 agus méadú 7.7 faoin gcéad ar tháirgeadh domhanda copair i 2023, tá rioscaí sceabhach chun an taobh thíos de bharr drochfheidhmíocht mianaigh nua le blianta beaga anuas, a dúirt an banc.
"While the visibility of the pipeline of recent projects has been good, the increase in activity has been accompanied by volatility," analysts at the bank said. "In fact, many projects currently under development have been nearly 30 years in the making, and supply growth is likely to fade from 2025 due to relatively limited exploration activity in recent years."
Feiceann Bank of America roinnt fadhbanna a chuireann srian ar fhás táirgeachta. Le linn na seachtaine LME le déanaí, léirigh óráid a thug Edgar Blanco Rand, iar-leas-aire mianadóireachta sa tSile, na coinníollacha seo.
Chuir an t-oifigeach sraith tionscadal bunaithe sa tSile i láthair a bhainfí amach ar chostas 74 billiún faoi 2029 chun táirgeacht iomlán de 7 milliún tonna a bhaint amach. Díríonn Edgar Blanco ar chopar, ag tabhairt faoi deara go bhfuil táirgeadh cothrom ó 2000 ag thart ar 5.7m tonna.
"This implies capex intensity of about 50,000 per tonne, well above the 10,000 to 20,000 per tonne range of recent years. As an aggravating factor, investment needs to be large enough to offset production losses of about 1.5 million tonnes."
According to Bank of America, the 10 most significant supply increases will account for 58 percent of the increase in output by 2022. This supports BofA's view that the expansion is very concentrated and has two implications. First, operational problems at just one or two mines could significantly affect the balance of the market, meaning that the trajectory of these 10 mines is critical.
Ar an dara dul síos, de réir Bank of America, tá beagnach gach gnó nua á thiomáint ag oibreoirí a bhfuil cuntas teiste cruthaithe acu, rud a laghdóidh an baol bristeacha agus faoi-seachadtaí.
