On Feb. 22, BMO reported that precious metals such as palladium and gold will benefit from the escalating situation in Ukraine and increasing sanctions against Russia, while commodities such as aluminum and nickel are also worth watching. Analysts at Blue Line Futures said tensions escalated in the West in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that he recognized two self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine and ordered troops to be sent there as "peacekeepers."
In response, U.S. President Joe Biden said he would release the first sanctions against Russia, targeting two Russian banks and sovereign debt. Biden also called Russia's actions "the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine." Earlier in the day, Germany announced it was halting the certification process for nord Stream 2 gas pipeline imports from Russia. In addition, the EU imposed sanctions on most members of the Russian Duma and banned purchases of Russian government bonds.
D’fhéadfadh nach mbeadh anseo ach tús na smachtbhannaí i gcoinne na Rúise, agus is é sin an fáth a chinn tuarascáil BMO féachaint ar an tionchar a d’fhéadfadh a bheith ann ar shreafaí trádála tráchtearraí.
"Ultimately, we expect Russian commodity exports to shift from Europe and North America to Asia," bMO commodities analyst Colin Hamilton said. A change in existing trade routes would lead to temporary disruption of market fundamentals, with precious metals being the commodities most affected by the shortage."
Palladium is the best performer of all precious metals, with Russia accounting for 39 per cent of the world's refined metal supply. Palladium prices have surged 24 per cent so far this year. Hamilton warned that further supply disruptions from Russia could lead to a sharp rise in palladium prices.
"Supply uncertainty, combined with the resumption of auto production, led to higher palladium prices... Russia is expected to account for 9 per cent of gold, 6 per cent of silver, 11 per cent of platinum and 8 per cent of rhodium supply respectively."
Chomh maith le hábhair imní a bhaineann le soláthar, tá níos mó infheisteoirí ag iarraidh sábháilteacht a bhaint as an stocmhargadh domhanda mar gheall ar thaitneamhacht tearmainn na miotal lómhar.
Hamilton added: "Safe-haven investment demand in the market is also stimulating gold prices, which have recovered to around 1,900 an ounce."
Is mór-sholáthraí ola í an Rúis, ní hamháin d’ola, ach freisin do roinnt tráchtearraí straitéiseacha ar cheart dóibh leas a bhaint as teannas geopolitical méadaithe in Oirthear na hEorpa, a dúirt Phil Streible, príomhstraitéisí margaidh ag Blue Line Futures. Agus soláthairtí ola agus gáis daingean, d'fhéadfadh praghsanna amhola ardú os cionn 100 nó fiú 120 an bairille, a dúirt Streible.
Other strategic metals such as palladium, copper and cobalt will also benefit further, he said. "Russia is the second largest platinum producer in the world, the first palladium producer, the third largest wheat producer," he said. Wheat prices have begun to rise, up 4.85 percent so far this year. Russia produces 3.5 percent of the world's copper. As demand for electric cars increases, copper is one of the main ingredients... Russia produces 4 percent of the world's cobalt, which is used in batteries for electric cars. So Russia is a very strategic country in terms of commodity production, commodity exports and the direction of the global economy."
Dúirt an t-anailísí tráchtearraí BMO, Colin Hamilton, gur fiú féachaint ar thráchtearraí mar alúmanam agus nicil freisin, go háirithe san Eoraip agus i Meiriceá Thuaidh. Ar fud an domhain, ní gá go bhfuil soláthairtí Rúiseacha chomh tábhachtach sin, ach tá siad seanbhunaithe i margaí forbartha. B'fhéidir níos tábhachtaí fós, tá fardail de na tráchtearraí seo íseal cheana féin. Ina theannta sin, tá sé ag súil go n-ardóidh préimheanna alúmanam LME san Eoraip agus i Meiriceá Thuaidh go luath sa téarma.
