Recently, "LME nickel futures event" in the global market caused a storm. After the event, LME took temporary suspension, set up the new limit rules, allowing enterprises to move positions to relieve delivery pressure, and actively mediate between long and short positions. The LME reopened at 8am London time on March 16, but trading after the opening showed that the system was not fully up and running. However, the LME is trying to restore the system in order to preserve the UK financial industry and its century-old brand reputation.
Tá go leor fachtóirí ag cur leis an teagmhas seo. Ó thaobh an chlaochlaithe domhanda de thionscal nicil, tá an contrártha idir an meicníocht praghsála nicil traidisiúnta agus an staid forbartha nua mar gheall ar an dearadh conartha todhchaíochtaí nicil atá ann cheana féin, ní féidir leis na hathruithe móra sa tionscal domhanda nicil a choinneáil suas.
Slabhra Domhanda Tionscal Nicil
The pattern of "advancing east and retreating west" is gradually presented
From the perspective of geographical change, from 2001 to 2021, China's share of global primary nickel consumption increased from 4.5 percent to 56 percent . China's share of global stainless steel production rose from 3.7 percent to 56 percent . Meanwhile, In 2005, China surpassed Japan to become the world's largest nickel consumer and the world's largest stainless steel producer. In 2009, China overtook Russia to become the world's largest producer of primary nickel. In 2021, Indonesia surpassed China to become the largest nickel producer, and the production share of China and India accounts for 60 percent of the global total. Driven by Chinese enterprises, Indonesia has become the second largest stainless steel producer in the world. In the same year, China accounted for 78 percent of the global production of ternary precursors. Ternary cathode material production accounted for 60 percent of the world's total output.
From the perspective of product structure change, in 2012, primary nickel (electrolytic nickel plate, nickel bean, nickel bead) production accounted for 51 percent , secondary nickel (ferric nickel, nickel pig iron, sintered nickel oxide, universal nickel) production accounted for 38 percent , nickel salt (nickel sulfate, nickel nitrate, etc.) production accounted for 11 percent . In 2021, 33 percent of the world's primary nickel production will be primary nickel, and nearly 50 percent will be nickel pig iron, with the rest made up of conventional nickel iron and nickel salt. In the future global nickel product mix, the proportion of primary nickel production will continue to decline, while the proportion of nickel pig iron and nickel sulfate production will continue to increase. By 2025, primary nickel production is expected to account for 17.7 percent of global primary nickel production, while nickel pig iron, ferric nickel and nickel salt production are expected to account for a combined 82.2 percent .
Is é an príomh-athróg a théann i bhfeidhm ar athrú praghais nicil
Le linn na 41 bliain ó 1980 go 2021, is féidir an treocht praghsanna domhanda nicil a roinnt go garbh i gceithre chéim:
Is é an chéad chéim roimh 2001, ba iad na Stáit Aontaithe, an tSeapáin agus an Eoraip na príomh-thíortha agus na réigiúin maidir le táirgeadh agus tomhaltas nicil ag an am sin, agus bhí tréithe sainiúla The Times ag na hábhair phraghsála agus na fachtóirí tionchair.
The second stage is from 2001 to 2010. After China's accession to the WTO, the global commodity market developed rapidly and ushered in the "golden decade". The demand in the market stimulated the rising price, and Chinese nickel enterprises formally entered the global horizon.
In the third stage, from 2011 to 2016, China, Indonesia and the Philippines dominated the global nickel supply, laterite nickel ore became the "new favorite of the market", and nickel price generally showed a downward trend.
The fourth stage is from 2017 to the global EV development stage. The application of nickel expands new development space and China's influence in the global nickel market increases year by year.
Mar an t-údarás praghsála domhanda do mhiotail neamhfheiriúla, tá tionchar mór ag LME ar phraghsanna an mhargaidh. Mar sin féin, is táirge de chuid The Times é freisin nuair is iad na Stáit Aontaithe, an tSeapáin agus an Eoraip na príomhtháirgeoirí agus tomhaltóirí. Sa bhliain 2001, chuaigh an tSín isteach sa mhargadh domhanda, rud a léirigh tionchar ollmhór ar sholáthar agus éileamh. De réir mar a aistríonn an t-ionad domhanda táirgthe agus tomhaltais nicil go dtí an Áise, go háirithe go dtí an tSín, is é an tSín an t-athróg is mó a dhéanann difear don fhachtóir praghsanna margaidh nicil.
From the recent performance of the domestic spot market, industry chain customers reflected the nickel price of the basic judgment, the domestic spot market transaction will affect the futures market. Prior to the absence of LME quotes, domestic futures exchanges operated normally, stabilizing market sentiment. After the LME opened, the domestic nickel futures and spot market prices had a certain guiding effect on the LME. It can be said that this "nickel futures event" not only reflects the improvement of China's pricing influence in the futures market, but also reflects the price discourse power of the global nickel real industry chain represented by China.
Chun freastal ar riachtanais na margaí atá ag teacht chun cinn maidir le fálú
An looming
The development of new energy vehicles has brought huge consumption expectations to the nickel market. According to IEA data, based on "the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 46 million in 2030, the global power battery installation capacity will reach 3000Gwh and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 50 percent ", the compound growth rate of global primary nickel consumption will be 6 percent from 2021 to 2030, and the compound growth rate of nickel demand in the power battery industry will exceed 40 percent .
Chun freastal ar éileamh mór thionscal na ceallraí, tá go leor airgid tar éis a dhoirteadh isteach san Indinéis le blianta beaga anuas, rud a fhágann go bhfuil sé ina láthair te d'infheistíocht domhanda nicil. Ach roinnt fiontair táirgeachta nicil traidisiúnta eachtracha, mar gheall ar chúiseanna éagsúla, ní mhéadaíonn an t-aschur ach titim. Le méadú tobann ar an slabhra tionsclaíoch ag an deireadh soláthair (iarann muc nicil, copar nicil, idirmheánach fliuch nicil, nicil Neamhlonrach, sulfáit nicil) agus forbairt bhríomhar an slabhra tionscal fuinnimh nua ag an deireadh tomhaltóra (réamhtheachtaithe terpolymer, ábhar catóide). , ceallraí, gluaisteán), tá an t-éileamh ag fiontair slabhra tionscail nicil sulfáit luach a choinneáil mar fhreagra ar luaineacht phraghas nicil. Mar mhargadh nua agus atá ag fás go tapa, méadaíonn líon na bhfiontar gaolmhar bliain i ndiaidh bliana, agus tá na fiontair seo tar éis éirí ina gcustaiméirí ionchasacha ar mhalartuithe móra sa bhaile agus thar lear le blianta beaga anuas. Mar sin féin, faoi láthair, glacann na malartuithe todhchaíochtaí sa bhaile agus thar lear go léir nicil leictrealaíoch mar an sprioc trádála, agus níl aon chonradh oiriúnach go hiomlán dá gcuid táirgí. Conas is féidir le malartuithe freastal ar riachtanais chaomhnaithe na margaí atá ag teacht chun cinn agus na gcustaiméirí nua seo? Molann an t-údar gur chóir go mbeadh malartuithe todhchaíochtaí sa bhaile agus thar lear ag coinneáil suas leis an Times agus conarthaí nua a fhorbairt, mar shampla iarann muc nicil nó sulfáit nicil le cúrsaíocht mhór.
Fillfidh an praghas nicil ar réasúntacht sa todhchaí
Am Londain ar 16 Márta, thosaigh an LME ag trádáil arís, le praghsanna iomlána níos airde anois ná sa bhaile. Mar sin, is féidir leis an idirnáisiúnta agus intíre a choimeád ar bun ar an am atá caite arbatráiste margadh, samhail chóineasú praghsanna? Cén raon a bheidh praghas nicil cobhsaí sa todhchaí? Ceapann an t-údar, socraíonn luach praghas, luainíonn an praghas thart ar luach. Is féidir luach na nicil agus an treocht ghinearálta ar phraghas nicil ina dhiaidh sin a anailísiú ag roinnt príomhphointí ó thosaigh LME ag trádáil nicil.
I 1979, thosaigh an LME ag trádáil nicil. Ó 1980 go 2021, is é meánphraghas todhchaíochtaí LME 3{-mhí ó 1980 ná 11,310 USD/ton. Is é an meánphraghas ó 2001 ná 15,798 in aghaidh an tonna; Is é an meánphraghas ó 2005 (Na hOileáin Fhilipíneacha, an Indinéis méine nicil níos déanaí isteach sa deireadh soláthair, thosaigh an tSín ag táirgeadh iarann muc nicil) ná 17,389 / tonna; Is é an meánphraghas ó 2017 i leith (nuair a tháinig cadhnraí cumhachta trí bhealach chun solais) ná 13,991 / tonna. Ó 2000 go 2021, ba é an praghas bliantúil i 2007 an ceann ab airde ag 36,126 / tonna. Agus éifeachtaí an bhoilscithe agus fachtóirí eile á gcur san áireamh, is é meánphraghas todhchaíochtaí trí mhí LME ó 2001 go 2021 ná 22,979 / tonna.
Sa cheathrú ráithe de 2021, bhíothas ag súil go forleathan go raibh praghsanna nicil ag bogadh níos airde agus níos ísle i 2022. Creideann an t-údar, ar thaobh amháin, go bhfuil an tionscadal nua nicil san Indinéis go príomha chun freastal ar an éileamh méadaithe ar chadhnraí, gluaisteán agus eile anuas. páirceanna. Ar an láimh eile, tugann na Stáit Aontaithe, an Chóiré Theas, an Eoraip agus tíortha agus réigiúin eile aird níos mó ar mhiotail ceallraí, nicil agus miotail straitéiseacha eile tá an fhéidearthacht ann go bhfuil éileamh neamhchoitianta ann. Ag an gcéim seo, níl an margadh domhanda nicil fós le brú amach an ardchostas a bhaineann le céim an stoic, níor cheart go mbeadh an margadh sa todhchaí ró-dhoirbh.
Bunaithe ar níos mó ná 20 bliain de shonraí oibríochta praghsanna nicil ar fud an timthrialla eacnamaíoch, agus ag smaoineamh ar na príomhfhachtóirí a dhéanann difear d'fhorbairt an tionscail nicil, creideann an t-údar go bhfuiltear ag súil go luaineoidh praghas lunni ag 30,000 / tonna sa dara ráithe de 2022. D'fhéadfadh praghsanna titim go dtí thart ar 22,000 tonna sa dara leath, i bhfianaise luas na dtionscadal nua atá le teacht san Indinéis agus praghsanna arda ag laghdú tomhaltais.
Fadhbanna nua faoi chúinsí nua
Will the recent occurrence of "nickel futures event" affect the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in futures? What can we learn from the new varieties in the future? The author believes that the impact in the short term is inevitable, but because of the particularity of nickel, for most non-ferrous metal varieties, years of operation experience shows that the current mechanism can basically meet the development requirements of the industry. Of course, relevant enterprises take the initiative to carry out self-examination, nip in the bud is very necessary.
Le moladh an sprioc décharbóin, tá méadú tagtha ar an gcion fuinnimh ghlan sa mheascán fuinnimh, agus tá méadú tagtha ar fhorbairt feithiclí leictreacha domhanda. Le blianta beaga anuas, tá an sciar den mhargadh de nicil, cóbalt, litiam agus sileacain ag méadú agus tá go leor rannpháirtithe ann. Tá conradh todhchaíochtaí litiam seolta cheana féin ag an cME, agus tá Malartú Miotail Londain ag pleanáil roinnt conarthaí miotail ceallraí nua a sheoladh freisin. Is féidir a fheiceáil go bhfuil tábhacht mhór ag baint le malartuithe móra todhchaíochtaí le tionscail agus margaí atá ag teacht chun cinn.
